Value & decisions
I study the incentives, information and market signals behind selection, pricing, strategy and competitive balance.
Independent sports research lab
A personal lab exploring how data, modelling and product thinking can make sport more understandable.
Why this lab exists
Competition,
made legible.
Sport compresses uncertainty, incentives and human performance into observable decisions. This lab turns those signals into defensible models, tests how information changes behaviour, and builds analytical products that make complex competition easier to reason about.
What I'm drawn to
Three lenses on how sport works.
Not separate disciplines, but connected ways of understanding the same contest: how value is created, how play unfolds, and how the athlete performs.
The game in motion
I use event, spatial and visual data to understand patterns of play—from tactical structure to player and team behaviour.
The athlete as a system
I’m moving toward sensor and biomechanical intelligence: connecting movement, workload and physical state with performance.
Selected work
A selection from my ongoing sports intelligence work.
Project / 01Forecasting
KPL · Esports
OpenKPL Analytics
A reproducible tournament intelligence system combining audited historical series, leakage-safe team-strength modelling, Elo benchmarks, and Monte Carlo progression forecasts.
PythonEloMonte CarloNext.js
Project / 02Forecasting
AFL · Brownlow Medal
Brownlow Intelligence System
An end-to-end expected-vote system modelling player-match performance, coach recognition, and the Brownlow 3–2–1 match constraint, followed by a frozen post-event audit.
CatBoostRolling OOTModel AuditNext.js
Project / 03Forecasting
NBA · 2026 Draft
NBA Draft Intelligence System
A probabilistic draft board combining multi-source mock consensus, betting markets, team-fit modelling, calibrated uncertainty, and Monte Carlo draft simulation.
PythonMonte CarloData PipelineNext.js
Project / 04Forecasting
FIFA · 2026 World Cup
World Cup Forecasting Engine
A probabilistic football platform trained on 49,000+ international matches, combining Elo, Poisson and Dixon–Coles scoring models with full-tournament simulation.
EloDixon–ColesPoissonSimulation